Chris Grundemann has recently posted his commentary on the recent discussions regarding needs assessment for IPv4 that is be done in the RIPE region under policy proposal 2013-03. It will be interesting to see the final outcome of this discussion and policy proposal.
The RIPE region has begun publishing information on the IPv4 transfers which have occurred under the directed transfer policies. This change in published statistics was brought about through the implementation of RIPE policy 2012-5.
A list of the transferred blocks can be found here: RIPE: IPv4 Transfer Statistics
Geoff Huston has published his annual look at IP address allocation and assignment statistics.
Plenty of numbers in the report to take a look at… Notably, we saw ARIN’s 2012 (45 million) allocation rate increase back to its 2010 rate after falling dramatically in 2011 (23.5 million). RIPE allocated its last IPv4 blocks under its “regular” allocation scheme in mid-September 2012 and moved into the IPv4 exhaustion phase of allocations. In the RIPE region, there wasn’t an apparent “run-on-the-bank” increase in the allocation rate as the registry moved into the exhaustion phase.
Here Geoff’s updated RIR Address Exhaustion Model shows ARIN moving into the exhaustion phase in mid-2014 with LACNIC in late 2014. AFRINIC’s trend-line currently points to an exhaustion point 9 years from January 2013.
Another interesting statistic found in the report is that the total number of smart phones and tablets purchased during 2012 amounts to almost 779 million units. If each of those devices used a native IPv4 address that would use up 21% of the total IPv4 address space.
Geoff finishes the report with a somewhat pessimistic outlook for the Internet industry.
We are witnessing an industry that is no longer using technical innovation, openness and diversification as its primary means of propulsion. The widespread use of NATs limit the technical substrate of the Internet to a very restricted model of simple client/server interactions using TCP and UDP. The use of NATs force the interactions into client-initiated transactions, and the model of an open network with considerable flexibility in the way in which communications took place is no longer being sustained. Today’s internet is serviced by a far smaller number of very large players, each of whom appear to be assuming a very strong position within their respective markets. The drivers for such larger players tend towards risk aversion, conservatism and increased levels of control across their scope of operation. The same trends of market aggregation are now appearing in content provision, where a small number of content providers are exerting a dominant position across the entire Internet.
This changing makeup of the Internet industry has quite profound implications in terms of network neutrality, the separation of functions of carriage and service provision, investment profiles and expectations of risk and returns on infrastructure investments, and on the openness of the Internet itself.
The RIPE NCC announced today that they have only one /8 remaining from their available IPv4 pool and have moved to the exhaustion state of allocations. Organizations with additional needs may only request one /22 allocation even if they can justify more IPv4 addresses.
RIPE now joins APNIC who exhausted their free pool in April 2011 as the two RIRs who no longer have available IPv4 for allocation. Recent statistics predict that ARIN should be the next RIR to exhaust their free pool perhaps as early as 2013.
Geoff Huston has recently published on his website his annual look at IP address usage in the various regions of the world.
A few notes from the report:
- With the exhaustion of the IPv4 pool in the APNIC region, the total number of IPv4 addresses allocated declined from the previous year. In 2011, 201 million addresses were allocated compared with 248 million in 2010.
- A substantial “run on the bank” occurred as the APNIC pool depleted in 2011. The number of addresses jumped from an average of 2.3 million addresses per week in 2010 to 6.9 million in the first 4 months of 2011.
- Geoff’s RIR exhaustion model still predicts a depletion of the RIPE IPv4 pool in mid-2012. ARIN’s IPv4 pool is currently expected to last until around the end of 2013.